The link to the Ghost of Lomax article about Oliver Smith is broken, which Ghost says is because Substack took it down again. Here's an archived version: https://archive.ph/Y7B5J
I noticed some irregularities in this article, which I pointed out on Manifold. Both Oliver and Ghost joined the site to continue arguing about what happened, both bringing frankly overwhelming amounts of allegations and corroborating evidence against each other, until eventually Oliver ragequit, saying he has now filed yet another lawsuit.
I’m curious what you think about the meat eating problem (the proposition that the average human will fund the torture of so many animals that generally saving human lives is a net negative) of some EA causes: https://journalofcontroversialideas.org/article/2/2/206
1. It's typically most cost-effective to save people who are extremely poor. Not coincidentally, these people eat much less meat than the average American and that meat is less likely to be factory farmed. I haven't run the numbers, but my guess is that the expected animal suffering per malaria net is pretty low.
2. This analysis assumes that someone not-saved dies and is not replaced. In reality, people react to higher child mortality by having more kids. It's conceivable that the more-uncertain anti-carnist world ends up with a larger meat-eating population in 100 years than a safer, life-saving one.
3. "I didn't save that drowning child in front of me because I was concerned about its future dietary habits" is terrible PR.
Everything you wrote about me false and was uncritically copied from an anonymous post written by a troll which was deleted. Where is the evidence I filed a "SLAPP" lawsuit against an "intelligence researcher"? I am not even a public individual.
"Prediction markets underperform conventional forecasting because people invest in them as an expression of identity rather than as rational bets on the future."
Yup, that's how I made $400 on Predictit a while back. Never had the guts to try to take it bigger than that, I don't like to gamble.
Those snowplow names are hilarious. I'm curious where you got it from. Where do people in charge of naming things have enough bureaucratic leeway to get away with this?
Especially enjoyed the DOGE essay, the New Yorker inside baseball, and that last link about the germanium, lmao.
I continue to not think that Musk & co are motivated by a desire to improve conditions for Americans, and it's not guaranteed that we emerge in a few years usable institutions at all. But if we do, those systems will have been designed somewhat from scratch to replace the ones being torn down now, and hopefully they'll will be a bit more sane re: modernization.
Using the excuse of your link to the close reading of Goodnight, Moon, I can't help but linking to my (very short but I rather liked it) bit of analysis of it:
The link to the Ghost of Lomax article about Oliver Smith is broken, which Ghost says is because Substack took it down again. Here's an archived version: https://archive.ph/Y7B5J
I noticed some irregularities in this article, which I pointed out on Manifold. Both Oliver and Ghost joined the site to continue arguing about what happened, both bringing frankly overwhelming amounts of allegations and corroborating evidence against each other, until eventually Oliver ragequit, saying he has now filed yet another lawsuit.
https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/if-i-investigate-the-oliver-smith-s
I’m curious what you think about the meat eating problem (the proposition that the average human will fund the torture of so many animals that generally saving human lives is a net negative) of some EA causes: https://journalofcontroversialideas.org/article/2/2/206
Miscellaneous thoughts:
1. It's typically most cost-effective to save people who are extremely poor. Not coincidentally, these people eat much less meat than the average American and that meat is less likely to be factory farmed. I haven't run the numbers, but my guess is that the expected animal suffering per malaria net is pretty low.
2. This analysis assumes that someone not-saved dies and is not replaced. In reality, people react to higher child mortality by having more kids. It's conceivable that the more-uncertain anti-carnist world ends up with a larger meat-eating population in 100 years than a safer, life-saving one.
3. "I didn't save that drowning child in front of me because I was concerned about its future dietary habits" is terrible PR.
Everything you wrote about me false and was uncritically copied from an anonymous post written by a troll which was deleted. Where is the evidence I filed a "SLAPP" lawsuit against an "intelligence researcher"? I am not even a public individual.
"Prediction markets underperform conventional forecasting because people invest in them as an expression of identity rather than as rational bets on the future."
Yup, that's how I made $400 on Predictit a while back. Never had the guts to try to take it bigger than that, I don't like to gamble.
Those snowplow names are hilarious. I'm curious where you got it from. Where do people in charge of naming things have enough bureaucratic leeway to get away with this?
>I care only about preserving American democracy and PEPFAR.
What happens if these turn out to be mutually exclusive?
I doubt they are IRL, though. Probably they're uncorrelated and it depends how much of a fight the courts put up.
Agreed. The American people voted for Pepfar to end - the only way to save it is to destroy democracy.
The Snow Crash toilet paper memo is something that comes to mind frequently for me.
Especially enjoyed the DOGE essay, the New Yorker inside baseball, and that last link about the germanium, lmao.
I continue to not think that Musk & co are motivated by a desire to improve conditions for Americans, and it's not guaranteed that we emerge in a few years usable institutions at all. But if we do, those systems will have been designed somewhat from scratch to replace the ones being torn down now, and hopefully they'll will be a bit more sane re: modernization.
Thanks for the links!
FYI, the US Meat Animal Research one seems to be the wrong link.
Thanks for always providing these interesting links
Using the excuse of your link to the close reading of Goodnight, Moon, I can't help but linking to my (very short but I rather liked it) bit of analysis of it:
https://stephenfrug.blogspot.com/2009/10/small-asymmetries-are-essential-element.html