[HOW IS IT NEARLY THANKSGIVING] Effective Altruism Global Poverty Actionable: Open Philanthropy is directing only $300 million to GiveWell over the next three years—less than expected (Open Philanthropy’s post, GiveWell’s post). Partially, this is because OpenPhil has more good giving opportunities elsewhere (especially in longtermist grantmaking); partially, this is because Dustin Moskovitz has less money. GiveWell expects to identify more good opportunities than it will be able to fund, and therefore donations to GiveWell are especially valuable.
Nate Silver, author of the "Indigo Blob" post, arrives at the conclusion that MAGAs are only 30% of the country by using "thinks the 2020 election was stolen" as a proxy for being MAGA. But Trump's favorability rating is at 42%. Sure, some of those 42%, when pressed, will admit they aren't the *biggest* fans of Trump and mostly only like him in the sense of thinking he's the lesser evil... but others are going to be huge Trump fans who answered "I don't know" to the 2020 election question, others will be idiosyncratic folks who are solidly pro-Trump but reject his voter fraud claims (believe it or not I've encountered such folks online).
Plus, I doubt many people significantly underestimate the number of people who think the 2020 election was stolen. Republicans are just shy of half the country, and Trump remains the defacto leader of the Republican party, so you should expect that if Trump says something (and it's widely reported that he said it), a majority of Republicans or at least 25% of Americans, probably more, will believe it.
The claim that the ALARA standard is the reason why nuclear power struggles economically in the US is seriously flawed, and you should cut that link. More at my comment on ACT:
Nate Silver, author of the "Indigo Blob" post, arrives at the conclusion that MAGAs are only 30% of the country by using "thinks the 2020 election was stolen" as a proxy for being MAGA. But Trump's favorability rating is at 42%. Sure, some of those 42%, when pressed, will admit they aren't the *biggest* fans of Trump and mostly only like him in the sense of thinking he's the lesser evil... but others are going to be huge Trump fans who answered "I don't know" to the 2020 election question, others will be idiosyncratic folks who are solidly pro-Trump but reject his voter fraud claims (believe it or not I've encountered such folks online).
Plus, I doubt many people significantly underestimate the number of people who think the 2020 election was stolen. Republicans are just shy of half the country, and Trump remains the defacto leader of the Republican party, so you should expect that if Trump says something (and it's widely reported that he said it), a majority of Republicans or at least 25% of Americans, probably more, will believe it.
The claim that the ALARA standard is the reason why nuclear power struggles economically in the US is seriously flawed, and you should cut that link. More at my comment on ACT:
https://open.substack.com/pub/astralcodexten/p/open-thread-303?r=ccxw3&utm_campaign=comment-list-share-cta&utm_medium=web&comments=true&commentId=44160478